Making sense of our current economic landscape with Vistage Economist Roger Martin-Fagg.
As I write this the reality of the referendum decision is beginning to take shape. And it is regrettably as was forecast by us, the much maligned ‘experts’! The headline is that for the next five years the UK’s trend growth rate is downgraded from 2.3% to 1.5%. This is significant.
It is reasonable to assume we are two years from a peak in the business cycle. Peaks are only followed by troughs if the peak occurs well above potential output. Thanks to Brexit we are slowing before the peak, and given full alignment we will not experience a recession. However the interplay of politics and the media could change the outcome.